India Original explainer
India has already warmed by 0.7°C since 1901. What is driving it, and what it means for heat, rain and coasts.
The summer of recent years has felt different in India, and it is not your imagination. Heatwaves arrive earlier, last longer, and reach places that used to escape them. The monsoon still comes, but it behaves differently — long dry spells broken by sudden, violent downpours that flood a city in hours. These are not random bad years. They are the local face of a global shift: climate change. India has already warmed by about 0.7 degrees Celsius between 1901 and 2018, according to the Ministry of Earth Sciences. That number sounds small. Its effects are not.
Climate change means a long-term shift in the Earth's weather patterns, driven mainly by human activity. For about 250 years, since the Industrial Revolution, we have been burning coal, oil and gas for energy. Burning them releases carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. These gases let sunlight in but trap heat on its way out, like glass on a greenhouse. The more gas in the air, the warmer the planet gets. The global average temperature has risen by about 1 degree Celsius since pre-industrial times. India, as a large tropical country, feels that warming in its own way.
The most direct change is heat. The 2010 to 2019 decade was the hottest India has recorded, and heatwaves now affect more districts and last longer than they did a generation ago. Heat is not just uncomfortable. It kills outdoor workers, wilts crops, and pushes up the demand for electricity as everyone switches on fans and coolers. For a country where millions work outdoors — farmers, construction workers, street vendors — hotter summers are a health and livelihood problem, not just a weather story.
Rain is changing too. The total monsoon rain has declined in parts of the country, while extreme rainfall events have become more common. That combination — less steady rain, more sudden floods — is the worst of both worlds for farming. A dry spell at sowing time can ruin a crop, and a cloudburst a month later can wash away what survived. The tropical Indian Ocean, which drives the monsoon, has warmed by 1 degree Celsius between 1951 and 2015, and a warmer ocean feeds stronger storms. The intensity of severe cyclones hitting India's coasts has increased, and coastal cities face a double threat: stronger storms and rising seas.
The sea itself is rising. Warmer water expands, and melting glaciers add more water to the oceans. Under the worst-case scenario in the government's 2020 climate assessment, sea level around India could rise by about 30 centimetres by the end of this century. That threatens low-lying coasts, the Sundarbans delta, and cities like Mumbai and Chennai, where millions live close to the water. Salt water creeping into farmland and drinking water wells is already a problem in parts of Bengal and Gujarat.
India is vulnerable because of geography and because of how people live. More than half the workforce depends on farming, which depends on the monsoon. Hundreds of millions live in cities that are already hot and crowded, many without reliable cooling. And India is important because of scale: it is the world's most populous country, its economy is growing fast, and its choices about energy will shape global emissions for decades. India has pledged to reach net zero emissions by 2070, and it has set ambitious targets for solar and wind power, but coal still supplies much of its electricity. That tension — between development and decarbonisation — is the central argument of Indian climate policy.
The future depends on choices that have not been made yet. Under the worst-case scenario in the government's assessment, India's average temperature could rise by about 4.4 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. That is not a prediction of what will happen. It is a warning about what could happen if emissions keep rising unchecked. Lower-emission paths lead to far less warming. The difference between those paths is measured in heatwaves avoided, crops saved, and lives protected.
There are two kinds of answers. The first is to cut emissions: more solar and wind, more efficient buildings and appliances, better public transport, and less waste. India is already one of the world's biggest builders of solar power, and solar is now among the cheapest sources of new electricity in the country. The second is adaptation: preparing for the warming that is already locked in. That means heat action plans in cities, so that when a heatwave is forecast, water points open and work hours shift. It means crop varieties that tolerate heat and erratic rain. It means mangroves and wetlands protected as natural flood defences, and building codes that keep homes cooler without air conditioning.
Individual choices matter, but they are not the whole answer. Using less electricity, wasting less food, and using public transport all help. But the big levers are systemic: how power is generated, how cities are built, and how farms are supported. That is why climate change is a policy story as much as a personal one, and why it will be on the front page for the rest of our lives. It is not a distant problem about polar bears. It is already changing the heat you feel, the rain your crops get, and the price of the food you eat.
This explainer was written by The Daily Short's desk from the sources listed above. It is general information, not professional advice. Spot an error? Tell us via the Contact page and we will correct it. Follow our official Instagram @the.daily.short.